Why the Zune Phone Rumors Should Be a Warning to Windows Mobile OEMs

Last time Microsoft was unsuccessful with it's OEM model that it prefers, it ditched it. That was the Zune. Before the Zune hit, there were rumors. Lots and lots of rumors. Of course, to the audioplayer makers, who used Play Anywhere, it should have been a warning. A warning to shape up or else.

And now the rumors struck again. But this time, it was on the mobile phone front. Windows Mobile OEMs should be shaking in their boots to get Windows Mobile out there, because if they don't, Microsoft will have to abandon them.

Microsoft bought Danger Inc. a while back, the people behind the Sidekick. Of course, the word is that Microsoft isn't developing a phone, and that it is just working on services may include the Zune music service:

More realistic are reports that Microsoft is working on premium mobile services based on technology acquired in its purchase of Danger Inc., the company behind T-Mobile's Sidekick device. In addition, there are rumblings about Microsoft extending the Zune music service onto mobile phones.

Of course, a failure to ship up could very quickly turn these services into a full platform. Another bit from Todd Bishop:

Windows Mobile hasn't yet stumbled to the point that Microsoft would risk alienating its mobile-phone partners by coming out with its own competing phone.

Yet.

While I don't think there will be a full-fledged Microsoft-only phone yet, or at CES, it is becoming a bigger Danger (pun intended) every day market share slides.

Windows Mobile's share may drop to 11% this year from 12% in 2007, says Chris Ambrosio, an executive director for wireless at research firm Strategy Analytics.

This all boils down to whether or not Windows Mobile OEMs will actually be useful to Microsoft. Paul Thurrott has this to say:

I’d argue that Microsoft’s relationships with handset makers is, in fact, its biggest weakness in the mobile market.

I agree that currently, phone OEMs are holding Microsoft back.

Microsoft needs to take control of its future in the smart phone market and it can’t do that unless it makes its own devices or its partner make serious, Apple-like concessions. Guess which one is more likely?

The reason there are Zune-Phone rumors in the first place can only be one of two reasons:

1. Microsoft is already making it. (Signs point to no on this one.)
2. People understand this is probably going to end up as Microsoft's only choice.

Honestly, the OEMs need to be forewarned. Microsoft will give up on you if Windows Mobile doesn't move on up soon. They do prefer you making the phones, but if it doesn't work, they will drop you. Microsoft calls OEMs partners for a reason. Partners both get good out of any relationship, and if that isn't true, then you aren't partners anymore. Get the hint. Shape up or else.